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Coyote Streakers

Stock Market

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I would never take investing advice from Fox news or any other news.

 

My guy who has KILLED it this past year, is in CASH right now... slow and steady bro!

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I stuck a bunch of money in the Market in March 09 and have done quite well with that. I am still looking for more opportunities. I enjoy watching Fox during lunchtime they have a decent show on there compared to the other outlets in my opinion.

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I've invested in and traded stocks since college (10+ years experience).

 

2010 stocks to play:

 

1) SIRI - Sirius Satellite Radio. I like it to hit 1.50+ in 2010. It currently trades at 0.85. I expect the next move to hit 1.30 then pull back 20-40%. The second move in 2010 should take it to 1.50+. If you trade in and out of it right, you should be able to do well with this pick. If you want to learn a little about investing and how this specific stock trades, search for a poster that goes by the title "The Duke" on the yahoo finance message board under SIRI. She/He posts every Sunday morning about how the stock trades and offers up lessons on the ins and outs of trading in the market from a professional. The poster has been 80+% accurate on the stock's moves for 3 years. I've found my trading moves in the stock to be very similar to her/his recommendations, and have already made a lot of money trading this stock. So I feel comfortable recommending the weekly readings to you.

 

2) CSTR - This is the Redbox owner. I like it to go to $50+ within 12 months. I first bought it at $26 and it trades for around $33 right now. There could be a near-term pullback that would allow you to pick it up cheaper than $33. That's what I would be waiting for. Or, figure out how much you want to invest and buy 25% of that total position now. Then add 25% if the stock drops $2-3, and the remaining 50% if it drops another $2-3 from there. You win if it goes straight up from your initial purchase; and you're not discouraged either if it drops a quick 2-3 points right away.

 

2012 stock pick: C - Citigroup. I like it to triple by 2012 from $4. I've already purchased it in my IRA at this level with this same expected time horizon. If it triples before 2012, I will sell it. If Vikram Pandit (CEO) leaves before then, I would also sell it at whatever the price, unless I think the successor is just as good.

 

These are my favorites that I thoroughly research and feel comfortable with. I have plenty of others that I like and trade. Some safer and some riskier, but I don't post out here often enough and it doesn't seem like there's a lot of traders out here. But I do enjoy talking stocks as much as I do fantasy football.

 

Good luck to you!

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Good stuff TP. Thanks for the info.

 

Question for you. The last 4 years, I have put all my retirement money into cash. I'm about 50% in securities, 40% in cash and 10% in gold. Up to recently, I was earning a decent 3-3.5% return on the cash but now it's down to like 1-1.5% for all shortterm CDs. I don't want to lockin longterm. What's your recomendation to do with the cash? I was advised everything from corporate bonds to rolling over into a self-directed IRA which allows various investments such as real estate.

 

TIA

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Alex -

 

First, I would suggest that all retirement be in a 401(k) or some form of IRA, whether Roth, Traditional or Self-directed (SDIRA). I'm assuming your income level doesn't qualify you for a Roth or a deductible Trad IRA, but the gains in the non-deductible Trad IRA or SDIRA are tax-deferred so still the best investment vehicles. Agreed - the SDIRA gives you the greatest investment flexibility (i.e., real estate investement, etc.), but this isn't necessary for everyone.

 

As to the distribution of funds - Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Cash is the perfect diversified allocation. However, in a retirement portfolio, I would only have in Cash the money that you think you're going to need over the next 5 years, whether that's for college expenses for a child or grandchild, money for a first-time home, or retirement distributions you plan to take. All other money should be in the remaining allocations. If in cash the last 4 years, you avoided the crash of 08/09, but you also missed out some phenomenal returns in 09. Moving to cash is a smart move if you expect the market to crash, but it's difficult to time when to get back in and depending on what you're invested in some funds charge front-end or back-end loads which makes it even more difficult to make out.

 

As to the allocation between stocks, bonds and gold, I always keep 5-10% in gold. Then the remaining, I advocate varying with age. As a rule of thumb, I suggest investing in bonds vs stocks on the 'minus 10' of your age. So, 30% bonds / 70% stocks up to age 40, 40% bonds / 60% stocks at age 50, and 50/50 at age 60 or retirement. And I wouldn't go any further than that.

 

On the type of funds to invest in, I search for the lowest expense vehicles. I suggest using Vanguard for most if not all fund purchases. They offer passive, low-cost funds. Fidelity is another trustworthy firm that also offers some low-cost funds. Personally, I use both. For stocks, I suggest owning a small cap growth fund and/or a S&P 500 fund, as well as a foreign stock investment fund. If owning all three, I would split it 50/20/30. If owning only two, I would split it 70/30 (US/Foreign). I like the passive investment funds of Vanguard the best because of their low expenses because it's tough enough to beat the market over the long-term, but to beat it after expenses is even tougher. But if you want to own an active investment fund then I would put some money in the CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX) run by Ken Heebner. But if he ever leaves, then I wouldn't bless the investment. You can expect some volatility with Heebner, but he's the best fund manager out there IMO. For bond fund investments, I would own some low-cost bond from from Vanguard or Fidelity, or a bond fund from PIMCO. I only advocate PIMCO because they have the best bond managers in the world in Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Arian. But some of their funds can be relatively expensive, so be sure to look at all the expenses before deciding to invest. And if those two managers are no longer there, then I wouldn't bless the investment. I own a Vanguard and PIMCO bond fund.

 

If you want more specific fund advice let me know. But the allocation is the most important decision. Hope that helps.

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Thanks TP. That is some very valuable advice. I appreciate you taking the time to write it.

 

The reason I have 40% of my retirement money in cash was because I was nervous about the market since 2006 and kept leaving my yearly SEP contributions in cash, against the advice of my broker cool . I put it in various short term CDs and now its at a point where they have all matured and I'm stuck trying to figure out what to do with the cash. The current returns on CDs are miniscule, as you well know.

 

 

I'm currently very concerned about inflation and falling dollar. I am seriously considering buying more gold. Btw, I was also looking at buying Australian government bonds. Their 10 year bond has a very nice 5%+ yield and it may also be a good hedge against a potentially falling US dollar as well. What do you think?

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Maybe TP can elaborate more on this but I have read severals things saying India is a nice play for the long term because they have so much growth heading their way. They are around 15 years behind China in development but are really ramping things up to catch up. TP might be able to better explain but I have heard on more than one occasion that India is a nice emerging country to invest in.

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Alex -

 

Your '06 cash would be back at the same level today if invested in stocks. The best thing you did was avoid the annual distribution in '08 which would've lost a ton of value; but on the flip side, your '09 contribution could've made a lot depending on when you made it. Point is, I will always like stocks over cash as an asset class, unless you think you'll need the cash in the next 5 years. That money has to be in cash because you can't afford to lose it in that timeframe. And if you're in cash, depending on how much, I wouldn't have more than $250K in one account. It's only now FDIC insured up to that amount. CD's just aren't what they used to be some 15-20 yrs ago. Unless you need the cash like I said, I wouldn't go there.

 

A lot of smart investors are concerned with inflation and the falling dollar. Some big name managers are even creating more gold investment vehicles via gold ETFs. Gold has different trading reasons today than it ever has before. It used to be an all-else fails hedge. Now, there are more reasons to own gold. I still wouldn't allocate more than 10% of my retirement portfolio to gold. It too can trade with wild volatility and with new reasons to own/trade gold, we could see significant volatility over the next decade. Inflation is a valid concern, but the federal reserve is an inflation-attacking monster. I mean, even in the face of a crumbling economy, they were still concerned with inflation for far too long. They eventually 'got it' and helped save our economy; but I believe when inflation fears pick back up, they will be quick to act. So I am less concerned - at least not enough to advocate owning more than 10% gold.

 

I wouldn't be putting all my bond allocation to Australia. As one piece of my bond investment yes, but I like bond funds because they diversify. IMO - it's not a good idea to have my retirement money in one sector. If we're wrong and something blows up in Australia, you are screwed.

 

Coyote -

 

India is a good longer term growth story. Personally, I'm going with Brazil. With the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016, there will be an upward biased trend in these stocks for the next few years as they improve their infrastructure for these events. This is similar to what happened in China leading up to the Olympics in 2008. You can comfortably add to your investment positions in these stocks on pullbacks, knowing that the trend is on your side for the foreseeable future. Some have already moved higher from the Olympics announcement, but there's still plenty of time to invest and there will be pullbacks. Here's a list of stocks to follow the trend: VALE, VIV, PBR, SID, GGB, GFA and STD. If you don't feel comfortable enough picking the individual stocks, look at EWZ - a Brazilian ETF that includes a basket of stocks.

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Citigroup is poised for tremendous growth fellas, as well as Bank of America. Look for a 100% gain from Citigroup and similar #s from BOA.

 

As always, consult your financial director and understand that the summer is always slow.

 

My advisor's advice (who has killed it the last year to the tune of 130% since March, 180% for his most agressive investors): get in now, any money you can get your hands on... prepare to take some profits before the summer and then get ready for a huge push upward.

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Citigroup is poised for tremendous growth fellas, as well as Bank of America. Look for a 100% gain from Citigroup and similar #s from BOA.

 

As always, consult your financial director and understand that the summer is always slow.

 

My advisor's advice (who has killed it the last year to the tune of 130% since March, 180% for his most agressive investors): get in now, any money you can get your hands on... prepare to take some profits before the summer and then get ready for a huge push upward.

Hey Scott do you remember my conversation about Wells Fargo with you last year? Those %'s seem right if you invested right around March of 09 last year.

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Question, does anyone know the how to use retirement (SEP) money to buy a specific piece of property for investment (rehab)? TP I'm hoping you know something about this. Does anyone have a broker that does these types of tranactions so they are not taxable or even better has anyone done this type of investment transaction before?

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Question, does anyone know the how to use retirement (SEP) money to buy a specific piece of property for investment (rehab)? TP I'm hoping you know something about this. Does anyone have a broker that does these types of tranactions so they are not taxable or even better has anyone done this type of investment transaction before?

Yes, I have looked into this briefly. Google Self Directed IRAs. I would read up on some of the pros & cons on purchasing real estate in this manner. I hear its not an easy process by any means and you can get yourself into a lot of trouble. But its certainly worth investigating.

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I think Garbage Points got a hooker from the pool at Hard Rock a couple Septembers ago...I'll ask him! laugh

Awesome. laugh

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I like Las Vegas Sands as a casino stock.

 

They are doing very well in Macau, with Sands Macau, Venetian Macau, and Four Seasons Macau. The Cotai Strip in Macau is bigger and more profitable than Las Vegas. LVS owns property and expansion rights for further development of Sheraton, St. Regis and other hotel/casinos in Macau. The "governer" of Macau recently restricted gaming expansion, which gives a virtual monopoly to existing operators like LVS and Wynn.

 

LVS is opening their $5.5 billion dollar phase 1 of Marina Bay Sands in Singapore in late April. Needless to say, three 55 story towers with a cantilevered sky park, convention space for 45,000, celebrity chefs, nightclubs, plus all the gaming one could want is a pretty ambitious project:

 

Sands1.JPG

 

Their Las Vegas operation is 1/5 of the size of Macau's, so weakness there is pretty unimportant compared to their Asian operations. Example: they run about 115 table games in Venetian Las Vegas and over 500 table (many baccarat) in Venetian Macau alone. Profits come almost exclusively from Macau and I would expect stellar results in Singapore.

 

LVS is also about to get table game approval at Sands Bethlehem in Pennsylvania, so they can build out a hotel/covention center there.

 

They are also lobbying heavily in Florida to put in casinos there to compete with Indian gaming. You could see LVS casinos in Tampa, Miami and Orlando. If approved, they would not be built for a long, long time, but just the approval would be a huge boost for the stock.

 

The stock used to trade as high as 138 in 2007, but almost collapsed to zero during the debt crisis as it is a heavily leveraged company, trading as low as $1 and change. People thought they would be unable to refinance their debt at the time. It is now around 21 or so after a recent runup.

 

I feel the market is currently overbought, so you may be able to find an entry point in the 18 range at some point going forward if the market corrects. (that is a total guess).

 

Their CEO, Sheldon Adelson, owns 52% of the stock and runs the company how he wants, but at least one of his main goals is surely increase the price of the stock.

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Quote:
Originally posted by Baker Boy:

Question, does anyone know the how to use retirement (SEP) money to buy a specific piece of property for investment (rehab)? TP I'm hoping you know something about this. Does anyone have a broker that does these types of tranactions so they are not taxable or even better has anyone done this type of investment transaction before?

Yes, I have looked into this briefly. Google Self Directed IRAs. I would read up on some of the pros & cons on purchasing real estate in this manner. I hear its not an easy process by any means and you can get yourself into a lot of trouble. But its certainly worth investigating.
Thanks Alex, I know there are restrictions of how you can used the property once you buy it but my question really is how do you move the money out of the retirement account without creating a taxable event. Any investment advisor I have asked do not handle this type of transaction. I wonder if it's similiar to how you have to set up a like/kind exchange?

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Quote:
Originally posted by Alex:

Quote:
Originally posted by Baker Boy:

Question, does anyone know the how to use retirement (SEP) money to buy a specific piece of property for investment (rehab)? TP I'm hoping you know something about this. Does anyone have a broker that does these types of tranactions so they are not taxable or even better has anyone done this type of investment transaction before?

Yes, I have looked into this briefly. Google Self Directed IRAs. I would read up on some of the pros & cons on purchasing real estate in this manner. I hear its not an easy process by any means and you can get yourself into a lot of trouble. But its certainly worth investigating.
Thanks Alex, I know there are restrictions of how you can used the property once you buy it but my question really is how do you move the money out of the retirement account without creating a taxable event. Any investment advisor I have asked do not handle this type of transaction. I wonder if it's similiar to how you have to set up a like/kind exchange?

As I understand it, you need to first roll your IRA/SEP money into the Self Directed IRA account, which is only offered by a few financial institutions (only small ones, none of the big boys, as far as I know). When you are closing on your property, you use these funds and you must document everything in accordance to the IRS and the self directed IRA regulations. All future property related expenses, RE taxes, etc must be paid out of your self directed IRA. If you receive rent, it will go back into the IRA and will not be taxable income. If you sell the property, the profits will also go back into the IRA. Again, all this must be documented to the TEE. If you make a mistake, you can really get yourself in trouble - so I read.

 

Hope that helps. Good luck and let me know if you end up going through with this. smile

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LVS is up to 23.69 a share now. Table game approval in Pa. has been made official and the hotel will be finished in mid-2011. Also, further construction is underway in Cotai with completion expected in mid-2011 also.

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Baker Boy - Alex gave you the best advice. It can be done but requires orgznized, planned transactions and appropriate documentation for IRS.

 

Dave - I like LVS as well but I would not be a buyer here. It's up 50+% in just the last month. It should be higher from here by year-end but I don't like to add to positions in overbought markets, which we're in right now. These legs could take us into May, but I would rather add on any 3, 5 or 10% market pullback. LVS has first support at 20-21, and if it fell through there, 16-18. If you have to own it now, I would figure out how much you want to own and buy 25% of that position now, 25-50% on the next pullback, and the rest on the next pullback. JMO for what it's worth.

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Impeccable timing Raiders...the stock was down 25 pts even before you posted this on fraud charges eek

Of course it was a joke. laugh What's your read on this Company?

 

Thanks,

 

John

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The jig is up and its about time, we should have had criminals in handcuffs and financial reform two years ago. Dylan Ratigan is back on tv now with his own show after dissapearing as host of fast money when the crisis broke out and he spoke out like this before. Heres a clip from Fridays show deconstructing the Goldman Sacs fraud.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31510813/ns/msnbc_tv-the_dylan_ratigan_show#36604057

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Raiders -

 

Nice. My take on GS is this - Like any firm, a rogue trader could certainly have committed fraud and hurt its reputation; but I don't blame GS the company. I'm tired of the attacks on the good banks such as GS and JPM. They paid back any borrowed money they didn't even want to take in the first place. The real culprits are Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG, Fannie, Freddie and a host of other failed institutions that destroyed everything. However, some want to blame those that were well-run and survived the financial crisis. Lets attack the wealthy - I'm tired of that argument already and I'm not wealthy, at least yet smile

 

As to GS the stock - I still like it, but I wouldn't want to own it until this mess runs its course. I expect the media attacks to continue and that won't help the stock. When we see light at the end of the tunnel then I would buy it again, hopefully even much cheaper than here.

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