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Coyote Streakers

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I am currently wending my way through Bob Shiller's Yale class on Financial markets, ECON 252. The 2011 version is available for free on Open Yale. The 2008 version is free on iTunes as well as Open Yale. I haven't come across many facts or theories I don't know yet, but it's early.

 

What I have learned so far, which is striking, is a new way of thinking. Shiller explains Finance as technology. He treats it as you would treat any other technology, like car engines or nuclear power. He uses the analogy to show that nascent versions of new technology (early internal combustion engines, Three Mile Island, collateralized debt obligations) can be very dangerous. It's only after we work with the technology for an extended period that we can have confidence in its safety.

 

Shiller's a Keynesian and I'm certainly not, but I still find his way of looking at things very interesting.

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Anyone that has been waiting to get into AAPL may have an opportunity again.

 

From a high of $705 a share on September 21st, the stock has traded down some 25%. It opened at $525 yesterday, then traded all the way down to $505, before strongly bouncing on huge volume (45 million shares) all the way back to $527. I got back in at $520 yesterday after seeing the reversal.

 

Some would call yesterdays's action a capitulation of weak hands. Others have noted that there has been selling due to impending capital gains rate increases. Also, some funds were overweight AAPL and had to balance. Whatever the reason, AAPL bounced strong and hard from that $505 level.

 

Technical traders may note a bullish hammer reversal, (meaning it should reverse and go up from here) as noted here:

 

AAPL chart

 

and explained here:

 

Hammer Reversal Explained

 

It almost goes without saying, but AAPL is very oversold

 

I could be wrong and have been before, but this seems like the best possible AAPL entry point for a long time. CNBC's Joe Terranova called it a "generational buy" on Friday as well and even long-time Apple bear Doug Kass is going long.

 

Situationally, the iPhone 5 is selling like crazy, and supply constraints are reduced. The iPad Mini will be THE hot holiday gift for almost all ages. At $329, I am betting it is on lots of people's Christmas lists. Teens, tweens, adults, you name it.

 

And the long-awaited Apple TV rumors are starting to swirl just a little bit.

 

Apple is trading at 11 times trailing earnings, and just 7 times future earnings ex-cash.

 

The fiscal cliff is an obvious macro issue, but even the politicians realize it is career suicide if nothing gets done. And the fiscal cliff issue has been beat to death in the news. Any hint of a resolution will take markets higher, just due to reducing uncertainty.

 

So, this is my call right now...buy AAPL on Monday morning and don't look back. As always, invest at your own risk. Long AAPL shares and calls. smile

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I invested a few months ago on the companies that supply the parts for the iphone.

 

If that doesn't pan out I'll just put a sign in my front yard asking for my bag of Obama money since I didn't get any the first 4 years.

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Anyone that has been waiting to get into AAPL may have an opportunity again.

 

From a high of $705 a share on September 21st, the stock has traded down some 25%. It opened at $525 yesterday, then traded all the way down to $505, before strongly bouncing on huge volume (45 million shares) all the way back to $527. I got back in at $520 yesterday after seeing the reversal.

 

Some would call yesterdays's action a capitulation of weak hands. Others have noted that there has been selling due to impending capital gains rate increases. Also, some funds were overweight AAPL and had to balance. Whatever the reason, AAPL bounced strong and hard from that $505 level.

 

Technical traders may note a bullish hammer reversal, (meaning it should reverse and go up from here) as noted here:

 

AAPL chart

 

and explained here:

 

Hammer Reversal Explained

 

It almost goes without saying, but AAPL is very oversold

 

I could be wrong and have been before, but this seems like the best possible AAPL entry point for a long time. CNBC's Joe Terranova called it a "generational buy" on Friday as well and even long-time Apple bear Doug Kass is going long.

 

Situationally, the iPhone 5 is selling like crazy, and supply constraints are reduced. The iPad Mini will be THE hot holiday gift for almost all ages. At $329, I am betting it is on lots of people's Christmas lists. Teens, tweens, adults, you name it.

 

And the long-awaited Apple TV rumors are starting to swirl just a little bit.

 

Apple is trading at 11 times trailing earnings, and just 7 times future earnings ex-cash.

 

The fiscal cliff is an obvious macro issue, but even the politicians realize it is career suicide if nothing gets done. And the fiscal cliff issue has been beat to death in the news. Any hint of a resolution will take markets higher, just due to reducing uncertainty.

 

So, this is my call right now...buy AAPL on Monday morning and don't look back. As always, invest at your own risk. Long AAPL shares and calls. smile

smilesmilesmile

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Dave -

 

Something I should've posted last week so it won't do you much good now, but you can still follow along using an old topic I discussed and attempt to apply it again in the future.

 

 

In light of AAPL’s recent decline, let’s dig up an old topic and attempt to address what is going on. Do you guys recall the time I spoke of the Magical and Mystical Fibonacci. I didn’t get many takers on this bit of Hocus Pocus but let’s try to apply some numbers to AAPL and see what we can come up with. First let’s pick the end points. For the Low, go back to 2011 and you will find 2 of them: $363 and $353. For this example, I’m going to use $363 because it marks the Thanksgiving 2011 bottom where central banks around the world decided to stuff our turkeys with an Intervention. For the High, look no further than Sept 2012 at $705. In a little over a month, the stock has lost almost 25% and Longs are left scratching their heads. If you ask Fibonacci what he thinks, he thought there should have been a pause at the 38.2% retracement or $575. There was no pause. 4 trading days after hitting it, Fib called up the 50% retracement or $535. It’s not often you find a stock moving from the 38.2% to 50% retracement levels within days like that unless the stock is broken so consider it a blessing or a curse.

 

My bet, a snapback is bound to occur here. We could be back at $575 before you can even say Dow Jones (who remembers this old Charles Schwab commercial with Shannon Sharpe:

). But there are larger, longer term concerns in the stock technically. For one, the moving averages are headed the wrong way and the stock is trading on the wrong side of them. The computers trade these things on auto-pilot so you might as well watch for the signs. Second, AAPL has 2 gaps to fill sitting all the way back at $425 and $385. They don’t need to fill now, but they will fill at some point in the future. The shops on Wall Street that only trade gaps say it is so. Now on to the good news. This isn’t a rotten AAPL . The valuation is still attractive. It is no AMZN. Technically speaking, the stock is oversold on just about every metric. This has the look of a washout moment that many are scared to buy into. How long would a rally last…days, weeks, months, who knows. Your guess is as good as mine. If I were to trade it, I would go Long $535 to $575, sell half and see what happens with the rest. If anyone was waiting around to buy AAPL again, you just got your chance to get in on yet another ground floor. If it fails and rolls over again, you wash out and move on to try the 61.8% retracement or $495-ish. But you won’t find me trading it. Though it is a favorite investment for many, AAPL is just a point of reference for me.

 

On 7/25, I entered the AAPL room as a Passive Bear on this thread. The stock went against that bit of trepidation to the tune of about 100 points. Like I said then, by no means do I think this is the beginning of the end type stuff. But this is the kind of crap I was concerned with into AAPL’s parabolic rise beyond my speculation of a transitional phase for the company. As always, good luck.

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A New Stock Pick

 

As Dave once pointed out long ago on this thread, LULU has been taking the Yoga market by storm in recent years, and women have been flocking to the trend and brand ever since. While I’ve only taken a few Yoga classes myself, I do have plenty of friends both male and female that partake in the exercise regularly. So I can appreciate the trend. I wasn’t much of a fan of LULU the stock mainly because I couldn’t get my hands around its valuation at the time. Many have though, including Dave if I recall, and the stock has been a big winner. As the stock pulled back earlier this year, it would appear this was yet another buying opportunity for the stock. Still not my thing but at least the valuation looks more attractive than before.

 

Now what if I told you that you could get a piece of the same Yoga theme on an up and coming brand. One that, while currently on a smaller scale, is seeing similarly blistering sales growth, is already receiving strong, comparable reviews to LULU and is operated by a long-established brand. The brand is called Athleta and it is owned by none other than The Gap (ticker: GPS). Yep, the same Gap that was wildly popular decades ago when everybody was rocking denim and khakis and watching 90210. Feel free to do some female research and see for yourself how this brand stacks up to the likes of LULU. My personal research so far has been very favorable. And the sales growth has so far delivered further confirmation (+30% in its most recent quarter). A lot of it has been done online but they are starting to expand the number of stores and doing so quite strategically if you ask me. They locate near and undercut LULU. Margins on this high cost merch is still pretty attractive, even if slightly undercut. Now Athleta only makes up a very small segment within GPS (less than 5% of sales). But this is THE growth driver for the company in the coming years. Not to mention, the rest of the company has already been operating a turnaround plan of consolidating and revamping its flagship stores. A plan that has already started to show signs of success, and has even more work to come in 2013. The valuation is relatively cheaper than a growth stock like LULU for obvious reasons, but in the case of GPS you also get a small dividend (currently around 1.5%) just for hanging on to the stock.

 

When you pull up a chart of the stock, you’re probably going to say ‘why the heck didn’t you tell me about this stock a year ago’. Doesn’t matter, this is a theme that has the potential to span another year or 2 on the Wall Street Fashion Show. Remember, buy stocks in stages...never all at once. Forget about finding stock bottoms and instead focus on admiring Yoga bottoms on your wife or certain flavor of the month. Let’s start at $31.50 and look for 3-4 more buying opportunities, each at $2-3 less than the last. As always, good luck!

 

It’s almost that time of year again. I’ll be back in the coming weeks for my year in review for picks and calls on the thread as well as a look into 2013 beyond this GPS pick.

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A Year in Review: 2012

 

Grab some coffee if you want to read this crap. As promised, here’s a recap of my Hits and Misses on the year. You may recall that I was quite cautious as we closed out 2011. Go back to a post on Dec 2, 2011 to see for yourself. Boy was that wrong. All the indicators I follow turned wildly Bullish in a hurry to kickstart 2012 and I was watching the game from the sidelines. But just as pullbacks are akin to Death and Taxes, I suggested using the decline in the market near the end of Jan to shift gears and get Long til Apr/May again – same pattern I gave you in recent years past. I missed the first 5% rise of the year, but this game is never about the rips you miss. It is about the dips you’re lucky enough to avoid, are able to manage through or even better, predict altogether. See my Mea Culpa on Feb 2.

 

Now, you also learned something else in this Dead Wrong post from Dec 2011. IF the inflection point resolved into a Bull, you would be looking at your average 2 year Bull run in the market. Meant you could throw out the noise and buy the dips. Better still, I told you a larger dip would occur in Apr/May again like clockwork. And it did. I also told you the Bull resolution meant SIRI was on its way to $3. On Dec 18, it hit $3.01 before closing the year at $2.89. And you had some significant buying opportunities in that stock throughout the course of the year, including a low all the way down at $1.78. I’m not going to get much better (or luckier) at predicting price moves within 1c. So please, don’t come to expect that sort of accuracy.

 

Time for the Picks and Pans:

 

SIRI – see above. A huge trading winner in 2012 if you’ve learned anything from me on the stock since 2010. The stock is up 270% since my prediction from 85c. It’s pointless to even benchmark against the S&P with that kind of return. I could tell you what I saw playing out in the stock back in 2010 but you probably wouldn’t believe me, considering most of it has all gone according to plan thus far. Do this stuff long enough and you will start to see apparitions as well.

 

WSM – I said to leave the stock in Apr at $36 with next to nothing in gains other than dividends over 9 months. It finished the year at $43. The money was spent better elsewhere but it’s still a miss. Not only did I waste 9 months holding the stock, I sold only to watch it rip higher a few months later. I can’t even tell you what I missed and that’s just how it goes. You start accepting that kind of crap is going to happen to you in this game, A LOT, and you’re on your way to playing well.

 

LGF – In Apr, I suggested starting at $12.75 and building the position at each $1 lower. Unfortunately, you only got 2 of those 4 designated buys down to $11.75 so call the average purchase price $12.25 with a $20 price target. In 2012, the stock saw a high of $17 and it has so far moved over that price in 2013. The stock is still on track to print that price target in 2013, especially with the second film of The Hunger Games series coming near the end of the year. Low-to-High from Apr to close the year, the stock generated a 39% return versus a 16% return in the S&P.

 

SAN – Similar to LGF, in Apr I said to start a position at $6.75 and buy every $1 decline from there down to $2.75. And similar to LGF, you only got the opportunity to buy 2 of those targets at $6.75 and $5.75. Got darn close to $4.75 by printing $4.88 at one point but fair is fair, call the average purchase price $6.25. The stock closed the year over $8 and has also been continuing its move higher so far into 2013. Low-to-High from Apr to close the year, the stock generated a 31% return versus a 16% return in the S&P. You also earned 20-50c in dividends by holding the stock – good for another few points of return – though the S&P has dividend payers in its own right.

 

GMCR – This one was not without excitement. If you’re betting with me, you’re betting against one of the more famed Hedge Fund titans in David Einhorn. He’s still on the opposite side of the trade and I still do not agree with him. Let’s go to the tape. Like LGF and SAN, I started off at $43.25 and looked for buy targets $5 lower than the last down to $28. But shortly after my first buy target, the stock got annihilated on an earnings report and the stock got cut from $50 to $30 overnight. Good news is, the story hadn’t changed in my opinion so on May 7 I gave you what I considered the gift that keeps on giving in this new Bear World and how you play these things when they go against you in extreme fashion. You cut out the buy targets that are gone and replace them with new, lower ones. Go back and read the post if you want to see how it was done, but in short, $38 and $33 became $18 and $13 until the trend reversed. So here’s the buys we got with all the price action: $43.25, $28.25, $23.25 and $18.25. Call it an average purchase price of $28.25. Not to be outdone by the Bears, the Bulls ripped the stock after the most recent earnings report and the stock was right back to $40 to close the year. Plus, it left things all the more exciting for 2013. I’m still looking for a price target of about $50 in 2013 that could even present more interesting buying opportunities before then as well. Low-to-High from Apr to close the year, this call produced a whopping 50% return versus a 16% return in the S&P.

 

LCC – I suggested closing out of the position at $11 and not to start looking at it til $8 again. Had a nice return on the $11 sale and the stock almost got back to $8 in the $9’s but it just never happened. The stock closed the year approaching $14 and has ripped that into 2013. Nobody ever got hurt taking a profit, but this is a lesson in giving up on a theme too soon.

 

FB – The IPO was a disaster. None of the potential trading opportunities I suggested worked out but you’ll recall I wasn’t all that excited about them going in either. It’s going back to $38 again one day, just as I said it would. It’s now looking like that day will be in 2013. My how the tide has turned. The boys sure do miss Steve Jobs. They would like Zuck to somehow replace him. I still don’t yet love the stock, fundamentally; but technically, I can spot a trend and it is Long FB in the 2013 Wall Street Fashion Show. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it print $50 in 2013.

 

That about sums up 2012. The Hits far outweighed the Misses in my book. A select few shattered the S&P benchmark in 2012, while the majority failed to impress as usual. 2013 has so far been a little easier to predict. As I told you before, Tune out the Noise. We’re going to get more of it come Feb. If anyone cares, I’ll be back within the month with more 2013 predictions. For those of you that thought my SAN pick was a bit crazy, boy do I have one in store for you.

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It was just a quick-hit yahoo finance video, but if China and Germany are trying to get their gold back onto their soil...does that give anyone else but me pause?

The German request for gold repatriation comes after gold coated tungsten bars were found at the German central bank. Then there is the French and US military intervention in Mali. Is the French and US motive to invade that country at this time gold? The German central bank asked the Federal Reserve Board to return 300 tons and the French Central Bank to return 374 tons of gold. Both answered that it would take 7 years to return. Given that Mali’s gold production is 85 tons a year (according to 2006 statistics), 7 years of Mali’s gold production would be almost exactly enough to pay back France’s gold debt to Germany and the amount being requested from the Fed. Dont be suprised if in the coming months there is some sort of crisis in ghana too given they have 100 ton a year gold production. My gut says there are a lot of shenanagans going on in the gold trade similar to the mortgage crisis where banks would package them and sell to 5 different entities. A lot of gold is held and traded by paper, not taken physically allowing for this type of scam until too many people ask to have their gold at the same time. Could this be the black swan that derails this fake recovery being held together by massive government deficit spending,fed artificial interest rates and money printing, and suspension of mark to market accounting for banks by FASB since 2009? Its really stunning we have kicked the can down the road for this long but i would not be suprised to see this market continue to the 1576 in October of 2007, before it all fell apart. Why? The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, a lesson i have learned the hard way. But the market does not remain irrational forever and when the bond bubble pops it will be one for the record books.

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Kind of off topic, but over the past month I have been getting more and more interested in Bitcoin, and the potential it has to be a game changer. I've read a bunch of articles and watched a few videos and lectures on the subject. Wondering if anyone here has given it much thought.

 

------------------------

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-investors-emerge-bitcoin-gets-191114595.html

 

"Other champions of bitcoin also believe that it could mark a new chapter in the history of money.

 

“Three eras of currency,†Chris Dixon, a partner at Andreesen Horowitz and well-known technology investor, recently wrote on a personal Web site. “Commodity based, e.g., gold; politically based, e.g., dollar; and math based, e.g., bitcoin.â€

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Lance,here is a link to thread @Covers.com about it.Pretty interesting but I'm just trying to keep informed right now.

 

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=35⊂=101567609

 

Back in the early/mid 90's I was afraid to invest little more than $100 in online stock trading...Bought just 10 shares of Mindspring @$9.25...(One of the first unlimited internet dial-ups for $19.95 monthly)..Few years later it was trading @$150 a share.They then merged with Earthink...Buddy of mine cashed out enough to buy a motorhome..haha

Kicked myself for not pounding that,but this is a whole new ballgame.

 

Guess what I am trying to say is I was afraid of buying legit USA stocks online,this is 20x that..

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Is anyone even following this stuff anymore? Here's an update on our current thread active positions within the past year. GMCR +165%, LGF +115%, GPS +30% (but this one's still early), and SAN +15% (the laggard). Not to mention SIRI +300% since the original 2010 call @ 85c. Heck, I even gave you the precise price levels to target on AAPL at the $425 and $385 gap fills. Adding insult to injury, CNBC is now pumping my airline (LCC) theme ad nauseum in recent months. I gave up too soon as you know but it was still a decent return when liquidated. Just funny to note the thesis is playing out 1 year after I laid it out. You see, even I can leave a position far too early.

 

Someone once laughed at me on this thread when I suggested a pick that went to 0. Hey, we all get things wrong, right. But if you happened to put a portfolio like this one together, an index fund will now need years just to catch up to your returns. The days of being a great stock picker haven't mattered in recent years' past. That is why I have talked about Macro Theme-based investing. However, in the past 12 months, being a great stock picker has mattered tremendously once again becoming the Mother's Milk of this game.

 

It's that time of year again. When you get the shopping list out and cross your fingers we get market or stock declines to buy those stocks at a discount. I've got 2 new picks for you just in case you would like to keep at this thing.

 

The first is a name I was only luke-warm on just a few months ago. It is FB. This is a bet that Zuck and Dorsey continue to change the world. Forget old search. New wave search is to start on your social media sites like FB, Twitter, Pinterest, etc. and let your family, friends and follows tell you what to search for the day. It doesn't get rid of google or anything by any means, but this is a generational shift that advertisers are only starting to figure out how to react to. Once they do, some of those old search ad dollars will find new homes. And a large recipient of those dollars should be FB and whatever empire Zuck continues to build either organically or via acquisition. Start with a buy at $26/27 and use the old rules for building a position. In this case, use $2-5 declines and 3-5 buys. The stock goes to $38 easy. Twitter IPO excitement set to come later this year or early next year could even press the stock to $50+. If I'm right, we collect another double within 12-18 months. How many of these do I need to hit here before someone takes notice.

 

The second one is a homerun or bust pick. It is much like my Blockbuster pick years ago that unfortunately went to 0. Picks like this only warrant a small amount of your speculative capital. The stock is NBG. Like my SAN pick, this is a financial stuck in the deadzone that is Europe. In fact, it is even worse in that it is in you guessed it, Greece. The bank keeps finding ways to raise capital to stay alive, albeit at significantly dilutive measures. But in this case, you get to buy AFTER at least one of their latest capital raises and cross your fingers the economy actually gets marginally better in Greece. That might sound like a silly thing to bet on but then again BAC was $2 once as well. To me, NBG is a statement name that must be maintained. If it were to be nationalized, much like the talk of nationalizing BAC during our recent financial crisis, it would be a disaster for all of Europe. In fact, I believe it would add substantial pressure on our own US financial system hanging on by the assistance of our Fed. Start with a buy at $1.20 and look for 3-5 buys down to 50c, at say 15-35c declines. The target is $3 to sell half of the position you've built. Laying this out for you now because sometimes these kind of all-or-nothing picks can double overnight. You wake up wondering what the heck to do with all this newfound money, panic-sell everything only to then watch the stock go up another $3-5. You plan this stuff ahead of time and you save yourself the panic and potential heartache. Besides, you sell half at $3 and it's at least a double. And you can't lose another dime on the stock no matter what happens - another one of my old golden rules. And if it ends up the start of something better, you've let your winner run.

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Tesla (TSLA) has been trending amazingly up, up, up. Wonder how high it can go? Ranged 20-40 since 2010, then has shot upward 120 since April and sits at 161 today. The guy behind the company is as brilliant as they get.

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Tesla (TSLA) has been trending amazingly up, up, up. Wonder how high it can go? Ranged 20-40 since 2010, then has shot upward 120 since April and sits at 161 today. The guy behind the company is as brilliant as they get.

 

Up another 20 in the last month! 182 today. Wonder if it's one of those "safe haven" stocks folks flood toward for "safety" in weird times.

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Originally Posted By: SPORTSBETTINGMAN
Tesla (TSLA) has been trending amazingly up, up, up. Wonder how high it can go? Ranged 20-40 since 2010, then has shot upward 120 since April and sits at 161 today. The guy behind the company is as brilliant as they get.

 

Up another 20 in the last month! 182 today. Wonder if it's one of those "safe haven" stocks folks flood toward for "safety" in weird times.

 

Ahh, the amount of money I left on the table with TSLA. Let me count the briefcases. smile Made some, but way too little.

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I understand when the DOW is where it is, the odds are most everyone may have made some money, but today's snapshot of some of the stocks from this thread makes for a nice timestamp.

 

Compared to previous posts here...

 

Facebook is up to 80

 

Tesla is up to 220

 

Apple started paying dividends and also had a reverse 7/1 split and since the split climbed over 20 up to 112.

 

Nice times.

 

Just today picked up a hardbound copy of The Intelligent Investor.  Time to learn the lingo, :-)

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Kind of off topic, but over the past month I have been getting more and more interested in Bitcoin, and the potential it has to be a game changer. I've read a bunch of articles and watched a few videos and lectures on the subject. Wondering if anyone here has given it much thought.

 

------------------------

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-investors-emerge-bitcoin-gets-191114595.html

 

"Other champions of bitcoin also believe that it could mark a new chapter in the history of money.

 

“Three eras of currency,†Chris Dixon, a partner at Andreesen Horowitz and well-known technology investor, recently wrote on a personal Web site. “Commodity based, e.g., gold; politically based, e.g., dollar; and math based, e.g., bitcoin.â€

 

Damn! :D

 

It looks like Bitcoin was in the $138 ballpark in April of 2013 when this was posted.

 

Around $1100.00 today! 

 

http://www.coindesk.com/price/

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After really enjoying the book Flash Boys, following up on it has also been fun.  This seems to be some important information worthy of sharing and spreading to more people.

 

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On 1/4/2017 at 0:49 PM, SPORTSBETTINGMAN said:

 

Damn! :D

 

It looks like Bitcoin was in the $138 ballpark in April of 2013 when this was posted.

 

Around $1100.00 today! 

 

http://www.coindesk.com/price/

WOW!!!

From around $140 when I first posted on Bitcoin to today's current price of $2,727.22 (up 6.83% today)

I wonder if it will get to the $10,000.00 range some predicted?

http://www.coindesk.com/price/

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